Tin Prices Continue to Consolidate in a Range Low Inventory Support Versus Weak Demand [SMM Tin Futures Brief]

On August 26, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract fluctuated rangebound. After a slight low opening in the morning, it gradually rebounded. In the afternoon, influenced by fluctuations in the A-share market and the US dollar index rebound, the price surged to 271,070 yuan/mt during the session. However, due to profit-taking by bulls at the end of the day, the price pulled back, closing at 269,570 yuan/mt, up 0.07% from the previous trading day. The spot market was sluggish, with the quotation range for spot tin ingots between 269,000-271,000 yuan/mt, averaging 270,000 yuan/mt. Downstream purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand, with limited acceptance of high prices, and traders dominated the transactions. The LME tin market was closed on August 25 due to the UK Summer Bank Holiday and resumed trading on the 26th, opening at $33,800/mt, down slightly from the previous settlement price of $33,845/mt. Despite a slight increase of 45 mt in LME inventory to 1,785 mt, global visible inventory remained below 10,000 mt. Coupled with the US dollar index rebounding to 98.4 (up 0.7%) due to an escalation in US tariff policies, LME tin prices, denominated in US dollars, faced pressure. In the short term, the LME tin price is expected to move within the range of $31,000-34,000/mt.

The macro front was mixed. Expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in September (probability 89%) and liquidity released through domestic MLF operations supported risk appetite. However, Trump's announcement of imposing additional tariffs on "digital tax" countries sparked trade risk aversion, limiting the upside room for commodity prices.

Outlook: In the near term, SHFE tin is expected to move sideways within the range of 250,000-275,000 yuan/mt. Low inventories and supply disruptions provide bottom support, but weak demand and macro uncertainties cap the upside. Attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in Myanmar, geopolitical risks in DRC, and the pace of recovery in the semiconductor industry.